Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-first-century California

Author: Swain, Daniel L.; Langenbrunner, Baird; Neelin, J. David; Hall, Alex

Description: Mediterranean climate regimes are particularly susceptible to rapid shifts between drought and flood–of which, California’s rapid transition from record multi-year dryness between 2012 and 2016 to extreme wetness during the 2016-2017 winter provides a dramatic example. Projected future changes in such dry-to-wet events, however, remain inadequately quantified, which we investigate here using the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble of climate model simulations. Anthropogenic forcing is found to yield large twenty-first-century increases in the frequency of wet extremes, including a more than threefold increase in sub-seasonal events comparable to California’s ‘Great Flood of 1862’. Smaller but statistically robust increases in dry extremes are also apparent. As a consequence, a 25% to 100% increase in extreme dry-to-wet precipitation events is projected, despite only modest changes in mean precipitation. Such hydrological cycle intensification would seriously challenge California’s existing water storage, conveyance and flood control infrastructure.

Subject headings: California; United States; Drought; Flooding; Climate change; Frequency; Weather extremes; Infrastructure; Precipitation; Shifts

Publication year: 2018

Journal or book title: Nature Climate Change

Volume: 8

Issue: 5

Pages: 427-433

Find the full text: https://www.sierraforestlegacy.org/Resources/Conservation/FireForestEcology/ThreatsForestHealth/Climate/CI_Swain_etal_2018_Increasing_Precip_Volatility.pdf

Find more like this one (cited by): https://scholar.google.com/scholar?cites=6416349926344811637&as_sdt=5,26&sciodt=0,26&hl=en

Serial number: 3390

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.