The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management

Author: Kreibich, Heidi; Van Loon, Anne F.; Schroter, Kai; Ward, Philip J.; Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Sairam, Nivedita; Abeshu, Guta Wakbulcho; Agafonova, Svetlana; AghaKouchak, Amir; Aksoy, Hafzullah; Alvarez-Garreton, Camila; Aznar, Blanca; Balkhi, Laila; Barendrecht, Marlies H.; Biancamaria, Sylvain; Bos-Burgering, Liduin; Bradley, Chris; Budiyono, Yus; Buytaert, Wouter; Capewell, Lucinda; Carlson, Hayley; Cavus, Yonca; Couasnon, Anais; Coxon, Gemma; Daliakopoulos, Ioannis; de Ruiter, Marleen C.; Delus, Claire; Erfurt, Mathilde; Esposito, Giuseppe; Francois, Didier; Frappart, Frederic; Freer, Jim; Frolova, Natalia; Gain, Animesh K.; Grillakis, Manolis; Grima, Jordi Oriol; Guzman, Diego A.; Huning, Laurie S.; Ionita, Monica; Kharlamov, Maxim; Khoi, Dao Nguyen; Kieboom, Natalie; Kireeva, Maria; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo; Li, Hong-Yi; LLasat, Maria Carmen; Macdonald, David; Mard, Johanna; Mathew-Richards, Hannah; McKenzie, Andrew; Mejia, Alfonso; Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario; Mens, Marjolein; Mobini, Shifteh; Mohor, Guilherme Samprogna; Nagavciuc, Viorica; Ngo-Duc, Thanh; Thao Nguyen Huynh, Thi; Nhi, Pham Thi Thao; Petrucci, Olga; Nguyen, Hong Quan; Quintana-SeguiĀ­, Pere; Razavi, Saman; Ridolfi, Elena; Riegel, Jannik; Sadik, Md Shibly; Savelli, Elisa; Sazonov, Alexey; Sharma, Sanjib; Sorensen, Johanna; Arguello Souza, Felipe Augusto; Stahl, Kerstin; Steinhausen, Max; Stoelzle, Michael; Szalinska, Wiwiana; Tang, Qiuhong; Tian, Fuqiang; Tokarczyk, Tamara; Tovar, Carolina; Tran, Thi Van Thu; Van Huijgevoort, Marjolein H. J.; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Wagener, Thorsten; Wang, Yueling; Wendt, Doris E.; Wickham, Elliot; Yang, Long; Zambrano-Bigiarini, Mauricio; Bloschl, Gunter; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

Description: Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally, yet their impacts are still increasing. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change.

Subject headings: Climate Change; Datasets as Topic; Droughts; Extreme Weather; Floods; Humans; Hydrology; Internationality; Risk Management

Publication year: 2022

Journal or book title: Nature

Volume: 608

Issue: 7921

Pages: 80-86

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Serial number: 3684

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